Rising global temperatures driven by climate change are expected to intensify the developing El Niño pattern, with the United Nations warning that the phenomenon could strengthen significantly in the coming months and become one of the most powerful weather events on record.
Climate experts say El Niño has the potential to amplify extreme weather worldwide, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, floods, and other severe climate-related disasters.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Niño is expected to strengthen through the remainder of 2026, bringing unusual weather conditions to many regions across the globe. Some meteorological agencies have suggested that the current event could rank among the strongest ever observed.
Although predicting the exact timing and intensity of El Niño remains challenging, scientists are closely monitoring conditions across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, where the phenomenon develops.
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than average. Researchers say satellite observations, ocean buoys, and underwater monitoring systems have detected a large mass of unusually warm water spreading across the eastern Pacific, extending from the ocean surface to depths of several hundred metres.
Michelle L’Heureux, a climate scientist at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), said the ongoing ocean warming has increased the chances of a major El Niño event developing.
As ocean temperatures rise, additional heat is transferred into the atmosphere, influencing weather systems around the world and disrupting normal climate patterns.
Scientists caution that no two El Niño events are identical, and their impacts can vary by region and season. However, many experts believe the current conditions could lead to an exceptionally strong event.
“We are highly confident that a major climate event is developing,” said Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Monthly to Decadal Prediction at the UK’s Met Office. “There is a possibility that it could break existing records.”
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has previously warned that El Niño could act like “adding fuel to the fire” in an already warming world, further increasing global climate risks.
A strong El Niño typically brings hotter and drier conditions to parts of South America, Southeast Asia, and Australia, raising the risk of droughts and wildfires. It can also weaken India’s monsoon system and contribute to unusually high temperatures across parts of eastern Africa.
At the same time, heavier rainfall linked to El Niño can increase the risk of flooding in portions of the Americas and other vulnerable regions.
The phenomenon can also affect winter conditions in the United Kingdom and parts of Europe, often contributing to milder winters and shifts in seasonal weather patterns, although impacts across northern Europe tend to be less predictable.
Climate scientists warn that if the current El Niño continues to strengthen, 2027 could become one of the hottest years ever recorded globally. Comparisons have already been drawn with the powerful 1997–1998 El Niño, one of the strongest events in modern history.
With global temperatures now substantially higher than they were decades ago, experts say a similarly intense El Niño today could produce even greater impacts than those seen during previous record-breaking events.
