A powerful El Niño climate pattern has begun developing in the Pacific Ocean, prompting warnings from scientists that global temperatures could rise further and weather-related disasters may become more frequent and severe in the months ahead.
According to a new report released by the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the emerging El Niño is expected to strengthen significantly and could develop into a major, or even “super,” El Niño event.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center estimates there is a 63 percent chance that the current El Niño will become a strong event, potentially ranking among the most powerful recorded in modern history. Forecasters also say there is near certainty that El Niño conditions will persist through the Northern Hemisphere autumn and are likely to continue into winter.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that develops in the tropical Pacific Ocean every few years. It occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific become unusually warm, disrupting normal wind patterns and altering weather systems across the globe.
Scientists classify a strong El Niño as one in which Pacific Ocean temperatures rise more than 2 degrees Celsius above average. Several climate models suggest the current warming could exceed that threshold.
Recent observations show vast volumes of unusually warm water moving from the western Pacific towards the eastern tropical Pacific. This warm water has traveled hundreds of metres beneath the ocean surface before rising near the coast of South America, a process commonly associated with major El Niño events.
Previous strong El Niño episodes occurred in 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16, all of which triggered widespread weather disruptions around the world.
Although El Niño originates in the Pacific Ocean, its impacts are felt globally. In parts of the Americas, the phenomenon can bring heavier rainfall, flooding, and stronger storms. Meanwhile, countries such as Indonesia and Australia often experience hotter and drier conditions, increasing the risk of drought, water shortages, and large-scale wildfires.
South Asia is also expected to be affected. During the summer monsoon season, India and neighbouring countries frequently receive below-average rainfall during El Niño years, raising concerns about drought and unusually high temperatures.
As for the Maldives and other Indian Ocean nations, El Niño could contribute to warmer conditions and changes in rainfall patterns. Rising ocean temperatures may also increase the likelihood of coral bleaching, posing a threat to marine ecosystems and tourism-dependent economies.
Researchers have long warned that strong El Niño events can have significant economic consequences. Damage caused by floods, droughts, storms, and wildfires, combined with disruptions to agriculture and food supplies, can slow economic growth and place additional pressure on governments and communities.
With global temperatures already at record or near-record levels, scientists caution that a strong El Niño could intensify weather extremes across many regions of the world, making its impacts more severe and far-reaching than usual.
